- known risks that cannot be managed proactively, should assigned a Contingency reserve.
-unknown risks that cannot be managed proactively, should assigned a Management reserve.
-negative risk that has occurred is considered an issue.
-risk attitudes:
- risk appetite- degree of uncertainty an entity is willing to take on of a reward
- risk tolerance - degree, amount, or volume of risk will withstand
- risk threshold - measures along level of uncertainty and impact
-positive(opportunities) and negative(threats) risk
11.1 Plan Risk Management
- how to conduct risk management activities for a project
- inputs:-
- project management plan
- project charter (4.1)
- stakeholder register (13.1)
- EEF
- OPA
- tools and techniques:-
- analytical techniques- understand and define the overall risk management context
- expert judgement
- meetings- high level plans. templates
- outputs:-
- Risk management plan-
- methodology, Roles and responsibilities, budgeting, timing,
- risk categories(grouping potential cause of risk), Risk breakdown structure(RBS)
- definitions of risk probability and impact, probability and impact matrix
- revised stakeholders' tolerance
- reporting formats
- tracking
11.2 Identify Risks
- process of determining which risks may affect the project and documenting their characteristics.
- iterative process, new risk may evolve or become known as project progresses.
- inputs:-
- Risk management plan
- Cost management plan
- Schedule management plan
- Quality management plan
- Human Resource management plan
- Scope Baseline (WBS)
- Activity Cost Estimates
- Activity Duration Esimates
- Stakeholder Register
- Project documents(charter, schedule, network diagrams, issue log, quality checklist and others)
- Procurement documents
- EEF
- OPA
- tools and techniques:-
- Documentation reviews
- Information gathering techniques
- Brainstorming
- Delphi technique- expert participate anonymously. reduce bias.
- Interviewing
- Root cause analysis
- Checklist analysis- historical information
- Assumptions analysis
- Diagramming techniques:
- cause and effect diagrams- Ishikawa or fishbone diagrams
- system or process flow charts
- influence diagrams
- SWOT analysis
- Expert judgement
- outputs:-
- Risk register- result of risk analysis and risk response planning recorded
- list of identified risks
- list of potential responses
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
- prioritizing risks for further analysis by assessing and combining their probability of occurrence and impact
- focus on high priority risks
- establishing priorities for plan risk responses and lays the foundation for perform quantitative risk analysis.
- inputs:-
- Risk management plan
- Scope baseline
- Risk register
- EEF
- OPA
- tools and techniques:-
- Risk Probability and Impact Assessment
- Probability and Impact Matrix- risk rating rules.
- high risk- priority action and aggressive response strategies
- low risk- watch list or add contingency reserve.
- Risk Data Quality Assessment
- Risk Categorization(using RBS)
- Risk Urgency Assessment(risk required near-term responses)
- Expert Judgement
- outputs:-
- Project documents updates
- risk register updates
- assumptions log updates
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
- numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall proj. obj.
- produce quantitative risk information to support decision making in order to reduce proj. uncertainty.
- inputs:-
- Risk management plan
- Cost management plan
- Schedule management plan
- Risk register
- EEF
- OPA
- tools and techniques:-
- Data Gathering and Representation Techniques
- Interviewing- experience and historical data to quantify P & I of risk, eg Three-point estimates
- Probability distributions, eg Beta distribution, Triangular Distribution
- Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques
- Sensitivity analysis eg Tornado diagram
- Expected monetary value analysis(EMV)- multiplying the value of each possible outcome by its probability of occurrence and adding the products together.
- Modeling and simulation- Monte Carlo technique- conservative org. 75% likelihood of success.
- Expert judgement
- outputs:-
- Project documents updates
- probabilistics analysis of the project
- probiliity of achieving cost and time obj.
- prioritized list of quantified risks
- trends in quantitative risk analysis results
- process of developing options and actions to enhance opportunities and to reduce threats to project obj.
- inputs:-
- Risk management plan
- Risk register
- tools and techniques:-
- Strategies for negative risks or threats
- avoid - acts to eliminate the threat or protect the project from its impact
- transfer - shifts the impact of the threat to a third party, together with ownership of the response. involves payment. eg, insurance, performance bonds, warranties, guarantees.
- mitigate- project team acts to reduce the probability of occurrence or impact of a risk. eg, choosing more stable suppliers, prototype development, designing redundancy.
- accept - project team decides to acknowledge the risk and not taken any action unless risk occurs.
- Strategies for positive risks or opportunities
- exploit - ensure that opportunity is realized.
- enhance - increase the probability and/or the positive impact of an opportunity.
- share - involves allocating some or all the ownership of the opportunity to a third party who is best able to capture the opportunity for the benefits of the project.
- accept - accepting the opportunity if it arises. not active.
- Contingent Response Strategies - fallback plans/contingency plans
- Expert Judgement
- outputs:-
- project management plan updates
- project documents updates
11.6 Control Risks
- implementing risk response plans, tracking identifies risks, monitoring residual risks, identifying new risks, and evaluating process effectiveness
- inputs:-
- project management plan
- risk register
- work performance data
- work performance reports
- tools and techniques:-
- risk reassessment
- risk audit
- variance and trend analysis- earn value analysis
- technical performance measurement
- reserve analysis- determine reserve is adequate
- meetings
- outputs:-
- work performance information
- change request
- recommended corrective actions
- recommended preventive actions
- project management plan updates
- project documents updates
- outcomes of risk reassessment, risk audits, and periodic risk reviews.
- actual outcomes of the project's risk and of the risk responses
- OPA updates
Reference: PMI PMBOK 5th Edition
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